Posts Tagged ‘Recession’

What will happen to House Values?

What price professional integrity?

.

These are the ramblings of a Chartered Surveyor Housing Expert in south Hampshire, England. They are published as we enter the run in to our General Election 2010.

Let me propose a few facts and then begin to think about how they may interact as we sail through this election and the current recessionary period.

1. The established Planning/PUSH estimate is the need for 80,000 new homes in south Hampshire by 2026.
2. The national and southern divorce rate is high, and increasing.
3. Repossessions remain a current property and social problem.
4. Despite several false dawns, property values are not booming or buoyant.
5. The majority of home buyers still DO NOT take any form of independent home condition or valuation advice.
6. The majority of Estate Agents and Buyers-in-general still pay lip service to Home Information Packs.
7. SAVA/Hometrack are introducing “Probable Value Range” opinions within Home Condition Surveys that can be generated by the newly created Home Inspectors for Home Information Pack purposes.
8. To stimulate savings the Bank of England must increase rates of interest, perhaps sooner than many wish or expect.
9. National and local housing starts are falling as we speak and I expect that rate of building to fall even further as disposable incomes fail to rise in the next couple of years.
10. Lenders continue to offer loans on terms unacceptable to most first time buyers (and others) – who has a 20% to 25% deposit nowadays?

.

I have always found that as a cyclical market trough finds its way to us, for even a fully blown recession, the Economists and Housing Experts all say they did not see it coming but expect readers to believe them when they begin to predict what is to come. Well, I say NONSENSE.

Media hypes up published market data and paints a headline along the lines of “House Prices UP for the fourth month in a row” etc…. What they do not appreciate are underlying trends, imperfect consumer knowledge and uneducated actions plus the degree of conflict of interests within the loans/legal/valuation/survey markets. There is even great uncertainty within the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) who, along with the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) are issuing revised protocols and Practice Statements on how to value New Homes.

• Loan Valuers have been told that they must factor out of the deal any sales incentives: this means that most valuations are now falling short of the stated asking prices.
• Loan Valuers are being told that the security of a New Home is its second hand value and that therefore they should ignore any potential “new build premium”. Again this kills any chance of a Valuation being near to the agreed price.
• Loan Valuers often break professional standards and protocol but not inspecting homes to the required standard when a survey has NOT been requested: a cursory viewing but mandatory damp test plus “head and shoulders” loft inspections are ignored. I have personally been told this by many sellers when I have visited for buyer, private survey purposes.

.

Moving on – A Chiswick home owner recently contacted me saying that several Estate Agents had stated her home was worth £875,000 over a year ago and that after full refurbishment she would get about £900,000 (in a falling market). She recently got her Mortgage Company to Value her home, the same gentleman who valued it at £875,000 last year, and the valuation was set at £650,000 (over 30% lower than last year). Now, it is possible local values have fallen by this margin but a cursory glance at general values in the district seems to not support such a proposition. Indeed, it seems the Valuer has simply been told to be cautious. This case has the hallmarks of professional negligence and/or conflicts of interest written all over it. This goes a long way to further harm the marketplace and to put back any fragile recovery that may exist “out there”.

Conversely, looking at the market from the stance of a buyer – why don’t buyers take truly independent advice?

The HIP can and and should be a valuable resource for information that can and will help buyers if they choose to look – it is my experience they do not even ask to look at HIPs.

To a Surveyor and independent Valuer the HIP is one of the first things I refer to – position of water and drainage lines – warranty and guarantee documents – planning history with dates – legal issues – a plan to see if boundary disputes may be current – the list goes on………

.

Moving on further – South Hampshire is scheduled for a 7% increase in population up to 2026 but it is scheduled to have an 18% increase in housing. Certain areas will have a disproportionate burden to swallow on their doorsteps in that new housing can be expected to lower values in the post-recession marketplace by increasing housing supply. Conversely a high divorce rate will increase the demand for, say, two bedroom homes (and perhaps Flats). These factors, plus any interest rate rises, may create a very complex market in the post-recession marketplace and it is at this time that the near defunct Home Inspectors (trained to complete low grade home surveys to go into HIPs – a product that was removed from the HIP on political grounds) are being encouraged to produce reports that attempt to predict what a home “might be worth” by looking at historic statistics.

I find this very strange indeed. At a time when the function and services of an expert professional Valuer are, or shortly will be, at an all time high, the powers that be are allowing a novice form of Valuer to float onto the market a predictive value report product.

Words fail me….suffice to say that buyers are encouraged to break with established methods, staid thinking, and to commission the services of their local Chartered Surveyor Valuer – somebody who knows the local markets and can be sued if they get it wrong. Why would anyone wish to gambol in the current market conditions? Not taking basic precautionary professional advice will adversely affect your wealth. If you have learnt nothing from this recession – learn this, nobody will help you, you have to help yourself and this starts with your choice of adviser – go independent every time.

.

My advice to L.R. in Chiswick? Start proceedings for Valuer negligence.

My advice to the political parties during this election? As I have seen nothing in any political manifesto to change any of what I have discussed above, I suggest you all return to HQ and rethink four subjects – (1) the meaning and definition of connected person within any property transaction, (2) how to get tough with errant Estate Agents on HIPs, (3) the need for housing projects to remains on schedule to create jobs, to create affordable housing in all UK districts and (4) to re-introduce Condition Reports within HIPs, as has been successfully introduced in Scotland (but with a change – to be completed by both Home Inspectors on modern units but experienced Chartered Surveyors if the home is over, say 30 years old).

Our collective attitudes to insurance are changing.

Insurance used to be exactly that, insurance to cover problems. However, the worldwide insurance industry nowadays often makes a mockery of seeking to provide adequate cover when problems start. Delays, “average” clauses, small-print exclusions are just some of the hidden problems for the unwary. In the car insurance market young people simply cannot get sensible insurance any more.

These problems have resulted in massive instances of non-insurance which in both dangerous and sad. Social responsibility seems to have gone missing in the Insurance industry and we make this worse as record numbers of recession-hit householders are making fraudulent claims. Figures show that annually more than 100,000 fraudulent claims are being made and this annual increase, of 17%, is accelerating.

Fraud thrives in a recession but cheating on your insurance really does not pay (if you are caught). The only thing you are likely to gain is a criminal record. Dishonest home insurance claims were the most common types of fraud, the figures show, with 55,000 detected in 2008; the figures for 2009 will be higher.

Winter Fires ……..

The Fire Brigade said that fires are much more likely to occur when the temperature drops. The most common reasons why individuals cause a fire are due to heating appliances (14%) and cooking equipment (12%) going wrong or being left on.

More than one-third of fatal house fires are caused by cigarettes and other smoking materials. Nationwide figures suggest there were 3,061 accidental house fires, 99 deaths and over 1,000 injuries linked to smoking.

Summary – carelessness causes fires.

Prevention is better than ……

Homeowner claims are at ridiculously high levels at present (as much as 1-in-6 households in some areas). Owners have forgotten they can take simple steps to help prevent pipes bursting in freezing weather. Prevention is certainly better than cure when it comes to an emergency in the home so people need to clear out guttering, lag pipes and wrap up any outside taps.

Burst pipes can result in an emergency plumber having to be called out – which could be costly and may not always be covered by house insurance.  Also don’t forget that if a property is left for more than 30 days then burst pipes may not be covered.

Burst Pipes and Water Damage:

The damage from burst pipes can be horrendous, especially if the burst happens when your house is unoccupied and the burst goes unnoticed for weeks. Collapsed ceilings, saturated furniture and electrical appliances can be the resulting damage.

• One of the main causes of frozen pipes is switching the central heating off completely when a house is empty. Leaving the heating on a low temperature (7-15°C) can minimise potential danger. Boilers and heating systems should also have annual check-up, to ensure they are safe and in good working order.

• Ensure pipes are well lagged, wrap exposed outside pipes with insulating sleeves and make sure that water tanks get insulation too. Intermittent opening of your roof loft trap door to allow warm air from the house to circulate around the loft and pipes can also be wise.

• Letting a protected interior tap drip during freezing weather conditions can prevent a pipe from bursting by providing pressure relief.

• Simply turning off the water is not sufficient for a property that is to be left unoccupied for a long period – there is still a lot of water in the system, which can cause damage. Get a plumber to drain down the water and central heating system to remove the risk completely.

• Washing machines, taps, showers, baths, dishwashers etc. should be checked from time to time for leaks, because even a few drops of water could cause rotting and dampness.

• Know where gas and electricity supplies can be turned off and where your stopcock is, as speedily shutting off the water in an emergency could prevent a great deal of damage.

• Clearing snow from behind parapet wall upstands and roof valleys is also well worth the effort. Deep snow thaws and the water released travels upwards by capillary attraction between tiles and breaches the valley liner, if one is present. This results in water running down the valley underside and into your home.

• In the Autumn period it always pays to clear rainwater fittings of leaves and pine needles. Forget to do this and one result will be that the weight of snow build up and icicles will deform gutters and before long water will get into your home.

Summary – preventative medicine coupled with common-sense is wise: ignore this at your own peril as some Insurance Companies will soon be saying that you have contributed to your problems and invoke Policy “average clauses” that dilute any claim payout. Insurance than turns out to be only partial insurance, again!

Overseas Home Owners – this also applies to you. Did you know that PROinspect can also take surveying briefs for European Home Purchases (albeit that such services are expensive).

Firstly, let’s dispel a myth: if you ask an Estate Agent to give you a Valuation what do you get? They call them a Free Market Appraisal and some might not put that opinion in writing. Why? Because what you get is simply an opinion: it is not a professionally binding opinion and liability does not stem from that opinion (you cannot sue them).

Secondly, let’s dispel another myth: if you request a Loan Company mortgage Valuation what do you get? One – the valuation is prepared for loan purposes and the sum quoted may be lower than market value for in-house Loan Company reasons unrelated to your needs. Two – if you are buying a brand New Home the chances are that in this post-recession world the loan company will have instructed their Panel Valuer to down-value your purchase because the security offered (the new home) is in its re-sale value when it is not “new”.

Football in the sun: before the rain.

Valuations can be needed for Court purposes eg: divorce settlements, Probate and Capital Gains tax purposes, Tax Planning purposes, to advise of whether alterations may be wise and economic, for sale or purchase etc……. The circumstances that surround the request may lead us to consider other market and property aspects that alter our opinions of worth.

So, what is the definition of market value?

The only way to get a professional opinion of value, one where you can sue the Valuer if he/she is wrong, is if you request that report yourself. The wise purchaser does this via either a request for a private valuation or asks for a private survey that includes an opinion of market value. The most popular form of survey product can fits this description is the R.I.C.S. Homebuyer Report (for details see elsewhere on this site).

PROinspect can provide Market Valuations. We would need to inspect the property and complete market research, including a analysis of price-paid data (that is historic) and take into consideration the market and the property.

Why would you need a professional opinion of value? This depends on why you need advice and whether you agree that independent opinion is of worth. Some might say that a Loan Company valuer can provide an impartial opinion – conversely, the credit-crunch has told us that millions of mortgagees are out of pocket because of the Banks and of home buyers had taken advice from professionals outside of the Estate Agency and Loan Company then perhaps the hole they are now in wouldn’t have been so deep.

If you believe that a Sellers’ Estate Agent and your own Loan Company place your best interests over their own then you do not need PROinspect.

If you don’t believe this then use the CONTACT FORM to ask for help and advice once you believe the time is right for you. Initial advice is free so what have you got to lose?